IP Video to is predicted to represent 80% of global IP traffic by 2019 - more than two-thirds of all global IP traffic.
According to the 10th annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast, factors expected to drive IP traffic growth include global increases in Internet users, personal devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, faster broadband speeds, and the adoption of advanced video services.
Cisco says that, collectively, these variables are expected to create a global IP traffic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% – the first global CAGR increase in consecutive VNI forecasts in nearly a decade (last year’s projected CAGR for 2013 – 2018 was 21%).
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Here in detail is some of what Cisco says about IP traffic in coming yeas, including its observation that, several elements will shape that traffic:
• More Internet Users – As fixed and mobile networks grow and expand, more people will have network and Internet access. In 2014, there were 2.8 billion Internet users, or 39% of the world’s population of 7.2 billion. By 2019, there will be about 3.9 billion Internet users, or 51% of the world’s projected population of 7.6 billion (Source: Population Division of the Dept. of Economic & Social Affairs of the United Nations)
• Proliferation of Devices and Connections – With 24 billion networked devices/connections expected online by 2019, compared with 14 billion in 2014, service provider networks must adapt to an influx of sophisticated devices. These devices include tablets, smartphones, and Internet-enabled ultra-high definition (UHD) TVs, as well as M2M connections and wearables (including new smart watches, health monitors, etc.). Globally, there will be 3.2 networked devices/connections per capita by 2019, up from 2 per capita in 2014. These advanced devices and connections will need to be authenticated to gain access to fixed and mobile networks, which require enhanced intelligence, network management and security. A comprehensive IPv6 strategy will be imperative for carriers to accommodate the volume and complexity of next-generation devices and connections. Globally, 41% of all fixed and mobile networked devices/connections will be IPv6-capable by 2019, up from 22% in 2014.
Traffic to Originate From Mobile Connections Including Wi-Fi by 2019
• Faster Fixed Broadband Speeds – Globally, the average fixed broadband speed will increase two-fold from 20.3 Mbps in 2014 to 42.5 Mbps in 2019. Year-over-year, the average global fixed broadband speed grew 26% from 16 Mbps in 2013 to 20.3 Mbps in 2014. From a regional perspective, Western Europe and Asia Pacific continue to lead the world in fixed broadband network speeds. North America and other regions are also updating their network resources to accommodate more bandwidth-intensive content and applications (e.g., UHD video). By 2019, 33% of all global fixed broadband connections will be faster than 25 Mbps, up from 29% today (mobile network speeds are covered in the February 2015 VNI Mobile report)
• New and Advanced Video Services – IP video will account for 80% of all IP traffic by 2019, up from 67% in 2014. The evolution of advanced video services (e.g., UHD and spherical/360 video) and increasingly video centric M2M applications are anticipated to create new bandwidth and scalability requirements for service providers. Residential, business and mobile consumers continue to have strong demand for advanced video services across all network and device types, making quality, convenience, content/experience and price key success factors
• Mobility Momentum – By 2019, more than 14% of monthly IP traffic will derive from cellular connections, and 53% of monthly IP traffic will come from Wi-Fi connections globally, making differentiated and monetisable mobile strategies more important for all service providers.
o Wi-Fi and mobile connected devices will generate 67% of IP traffic by 2019 – Wi-Fi 53% and cellular: 14% – compared with fixed traffic, which will account for 33% of overall traffic
o In 2014, fixed traffic accounted for 54% of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi accounted for 42% and cellular 4%
The Internet of Everything (IoE) and M2M Growth
The IoE trend is showing tangible growth as M2M connections will more than triple over the next five years (growing to 10.5 billion by 2019). There will be significant IoE adoption across many business verticals (e.g., agriculture, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, and transportation) as well as connected home deployments (i.e., video security, smart meters, lighting/temperature control, etc.).
o Connected Health consumer segment will have the fastest M2M connections growth at 8.6-fold (54% CAGR) from 2014 to 2019
o Connected home segment will have nearly half (48%) of M2M connections by 2019
o Annual global M2M IP traffic will grow 15-fold over this same period—from 308 petabytes in 2014 (0.5% of global IP traffic) to 4.6 exabytes by 2019 (2.7% of global IP traffic).
